Squeezing -> this is where the fun part begins. Most people SQZ too small and they don’t really know it. There is a beautiful thing about SQZ that only a math brain like ours can comprehend. Let’s have a look:
Most people SQZ something like 12bb. I KNOW that it’s more advantageous at the micros to SQZ bigger. This is why:
EP opens 3bb and then CO calls. We’re in the BB and thinking about SQZing.
If we’re SQZing to 12bb, EP has to call 9bb.
Now, if we’re SQZing to, let’s say, 15bb, EP has to call 12bb. That seems like not a lot more, but it is.
Now we’re 100% sure that EP can’t call with a pocket pair just to set-mine profitably.
Also, this is the big part.
If EP wants to 4-bet, we can agree that he’s going to be making it at least 2x the size of our SQZ, otherwise there’s just extremely good Pot Odds waiting for us. He has to be investing a massive part of his stack.
This means that EP will make it at least 30BB to go, investing almost one third of his entire 100BB stack.
This means, that if we go all in, he has to call 70bb into 200bb, leaving him pot odds of 35%. If we’re shoving pre-flop a QQ+/AK range, EP has to call with any pocket pair, now.
This is solid enough proof that it’s really hard for EP to be 4-bet bluffing. This means that he’s going to be 4-betting a range that will be value oriented, and in general KK+.
This means that from his opening range of 13%, he’s going to be reacting with a measly 0.9%. That’s a lot of fold equity. This is where we win a lot. We don’t actually need to bet post-flop as a bluff if he folds 12 out of 13 times pre-flop. We just scoop the pre-flop pot whenever, and when we do get 4-bet, we fold everything except KK+ or even AA only, depending on his 4-bet range.
And the beauty of this is that it only has to work as often as a 3-bet BTN vs EP has to work.
We’re investing 14bb from the BB to make it 15, to win a total of 3bb raise+3bb call+0.5bb SB+our 15bb back.
14/(15+3+3+0.5) = 14/21.5 = 65%.
3-bet BTN vs EP: we’re investing 9bb to win a total of 3bb raise+0.5bb SB+1bb BB+9bb back
9/(3+0.5+1+9) = 9/13.5 = 66%
This is definitely the optimal SQZ size. So, we’ll have:
Vs 3x+call – 14bb IP / 15bb OOP
Vs 2.5x+call – 14bb Anywhere
Vs 2x+call – 13bb Anywhere
IF there’s another caller, just add the amount that he called to your SQZ size.
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